Covid-19, better known as the coronavirus, has become a global problem as it spreads from southeastern China, causing panic, stunting national economies, drawing mass quarantines and travel bans, and raising many questions. Surprisingly, Guilford is home to an expert with many answers: Yale professor emeritus on epidemiology and pediatrics Dr. Warren Andiman.

Andiman, who in 2018 published a book on infectious diseases that examined the 2002 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS and 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) virus outbreaks, both very closely related to the current epidemic, said that while there is certainly a lot to be concerned about as far as Covid-19, Guilford residents shouldn’t be worried about the disease sneaking into town at this point.

“The chances are infinitesimal,” he said.

More than 71,000 cases of the disease have been confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), including almost 800 outside of the epicenter of the outbreak in China. Around 1,700 people have died of the disease, according to WHO.

Andiman said that it is not currently clear if the virus’s spread is under control, though with members of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States recently getting access to patients who were quarantined on a cruise ship, it’s likely doctors and health experts will be getting more clarity on the disease

Andiman said he has been following the current outbreak closely, and sees many parallels with the SARS outbreak and MERS crises.

“Its very, very much the same, particularly very much the same with the SARS outbreak,” Andiman.

Both viruses spread due to animal contact with humans, a common factor with the coronavirus family, according to Andiman. In the case of this outbreak, Andiman said that massive markets teeming with exotic animals may have been the source of the virus, which then rapidly spread through southern China.

“In that sense, it was almost exactly the same as what happened during SARS,” he said.

Despite all these similarities, there is no way to fully stop or anticipate these animal-born viruses, Andiman said, because researchers don’t necessarily have a way to study or identify them until an infection occurs.

“None of these can be prevented entirely. They all begin quite accidentally when the virus spreads unknowingly...Nobody knows about these animal viruses before they begin to spread—they’re unknown viruses,” he said. What can be done, he said, is something that Chinese authorities failed to do at the beginning of this outbreak, and that is quickly identify and lock down the area of the infection.

“What is preventable is the continuing spread beyond that initial sort of little cluster of cases,” Andiman said, “where public health authorities and epidemiologists are able to kind of immediately go into the outbreak area to investigate the way the virus is spreading and to institute the most classical kinds of infectious control procedures, namely quarantine.”

Not only was the Chinese government “essentially negligent” in the initial stages of the outbreak, according to Andiman, but until recently refused to allow outside experts from WHO or other health organizations into the country to assist in studying and containing the virus and silenced its own medical experts, further contributing to the severity of the epidemic.

“These diseases spread geometrically...and so a lot of what happened was negligence and a silencing of communication that is essential for presenting the further spread of all of these bugs,” he said.

At this point, though, Andiman said the kind of steps that are being taken are for the most part necessary and advisable for the sake of safety. With several countries restricting flights to China entirely and China itself instituting large-scale quarantines, some have questioned whether these measures are an overreaction, or whether they might also be too late.

Andiman said that when it comes to any infectious disease, quarantine remains the most tried-and-true method to prevent large scale spreading.

“It is the kind of oldest, most traditional, and the most effective means of softening the effect of the initial spread of any virus, even measles, which we’ve heard about all these measles outbreaks. All of them were prevented from spreading widely by quarantine,” Andiman said.

He specifically cited cases in which cruise ship passengers potentially infected by the coronavirus have been kept on ships and then quarantined after debarking as being “perfectly reasonable” steps.

Part of the reason why places like Guilford are extremely unlikely to ever encounter a case of the disease are because of these quarantine and screening measures, Andiman said, with airport officials checking from where any passenger is coming.

Being able to study those people will help United States officials garner a deeper insight in the coronavirus, Andiman said, including finding out how transmissible it is, how long it takes after infection for people to show symptoms, and other important things necessary to treat the spread of the disease. That group of people is almost ideal for researchers studying the virus, Andiman said, as they have all been in close quarters with infected persons and can all be observed closely over an extended period of time.

Andiman said that doctors in the United States can often identify viruses with a nasal swab, such as the one used to identify people infected by the flu.

Andiman said that with an especially nasty flu season currently rolling through the state, what people in Guilford need to most worry about are the things they should be worrying about every year during this time, Andiman said—washing their hands, covering their mouths, and staying home when they’re sick.

“We should take the same precautions we take for all respiratory diseases,” he said.

Andiman’s book, Animal Viruses and Humans: A Narrow Divide, is available on Amazon and from other major booksellers.